As we get closer towards marriage equality vote more and
more Tories are losing their shit in predictable ways – and among the
predictable shit losing we expect from the bigots, there’s also a small crowd
of “you’re going to damage our election chances!” Which really shows their
moral priorities.
But they are probably right. And wrong.
See, in 2015? Yes, it probably will. There are probably a
large amount of huffy bigots who will throw all their toys out of the pram
because their hatred of gay people isn’t being backed up in law. They may stay
home next election, or vote UKIP or BNP (who are still pandering to the Tory
bigot vote) and damage the Tories already tenuous chances.
At the same time, supporters of marriage equality are
unlikely to turn out in force for the Tories because all three parties are
supporting this. In fact, the only major opponents of this bill are the Tories
themselves – it’s even possible, or likely, that the Tories won’t be able to
pass this without overwhelming support from Labour and Lib Dems. And we’re not
even debating their support – overwhelming support from Labour and the Lib Debs
is expected. This is part of why it won’t help the Tories much – even with
Tories being the ones to introduce the bill, they’re still the ones being
dragged, kicking and screaming, while the Lib Dems and Labour are happily
working with it. Worse, for the Tories, is that their MPs are constantly
opening their mouths and saying some terrible things. Any attempts to big up
their gay rights record next election can be hit by some truly horrible quotes.
And, besides, too many of us are too aware of the Tories’ overall record to let
one tick overwhelm a whole lot of crosses.
So, short term? Yes, I think they’re right.
But long term? Not so much.
See, I think we’re moving to a different era of
homophobia in this country – and, perhaps, much of the west in general. It’s
not going away or anything close to that – and it won’t in my lifetime or in
the lifetime of my hypothetical grandchildren for that matter. But overt, stark
homophobic bigotry is becoming less… favourable.
That doesn’t mean it isn’t expressed. But it means you
can’t just say “those dirty, filthy queers are attacking our children!” and not
have at least a significant minority give you the side-eye. Maybe not the majority and hate groups that
express these views in these terms are still being given a powerful platform
far too often, but certainly there’s sufficient disapproval of such overt
hatred as to make people more cautious. Especially if they want national
appeal.
It doesn’t stop more coded bigotry, of course. And we all
know and loathe plenty of mainstream politicians and public figures who are
expert in coded language and dog whistles. Nor does it mean bigotry is
substantially reducing – just looking at over isms where it’s no longer “polite”
to openly use slurs or openly say “these people are less” and you can clearly
see that the bigotry and societal prejudice is still going strong.
But there is a move from the over to the covert. And one
of the more overt forms of discrimination is actually having he law say “no,
screw you, you’re lesser people.” That’s so very uncivilised and we do prefer
our bigotry to be more nuanced and covert than that. But it is vitally important to do – because tackling
the rest of the systematic bigotry that causes so much pain – the discrimination,
the contempt, the self-hatred, the dehumanisation, even the violence cannot be
done effectively while the highest authority in the land is still sending the
message that, yes, these people are less. So legal equality is vital and hailed
and recognised as such (it’s just not, as many straight people are going to be
surprised to find out, the END of our fight. It’s the first step).
And here the Tories have a problem. Because when it comes
to the big-overt-homophobia the Tories have an almost unblemished record of
bigotry. Any time a law comes up to try and protect our rights the Tories
either sprint to vote “no” or try to drown it through other means (like they tried
with domestic partnerships). They are the Nasty Party for a reason. But this
particular overt nastiness is going to cost them in the future and they need
something – at least one thing – they can point to to try and refute claims of
bigotry. They need one thing to cling to when we, our families, our allies and
simple decent people turn round and say “this is some nasty shit.” They need a
counter argument and they’re only going to need it more in the coming years and
decades as Overt bigotry becomes less popular, less acceptable and is replaced
by the dog whistles and coded language we know and loathe.
In short, the Tories need marriage equality. Maybe not for this election, but definitely for elections in the future. They need one thing, on blip on their record, one counter argument for the unrelenting reputation of homophobia they have. They need a “we’re not evil” card to play – and with more and more legal victories being won, they’re running out of one they can claim as their own.
